Rising Costs, Declining Confidence
Soaring tuition and student debt, not politics, may be driving Americans’ doubts about the value of a college degree.
With ideology dominating the Trump Administration’s assault on higher education, it is easy to conclude that the decline in public support for colleges and universities is attributable to what is taught, who is feeling under threat, and whose voices should dominate.
As Kate Selig discovered in talking to the leaders of some of the nation’s top higher education associations, there is another reason.
-MS
As the Trump administration claims that Americans have lost confidence in colleges because they’ve become too liberal, a bigger, less glamorous threat to public trust may be financial: College is expensive, and many Americans question whether it’s worth the cost.
That’s the view of leaders of major higher education associations representing hundreds of schools, including elite universities, historically Black colleges and community colleges. It also has some support in recent polling data.
“Costs are the biggest concern in people’s minds,” said Lynn Pasquerella, the president of the Association of American Colleges and Universities. “All institutions are worried about cost, from the community colleges we work with to places like Harvard.”
The administration’s assault comes amid a decade-long decline in public confidence in colleges. Association leaders said that concerns about rising costs and the return on investment are the main culprit behind that drop. Understanding these issues, they said, is essential for institutions seeking to rebuild trust.
Jonathan Fansmith, the senior vice president for Government Relations and National Engagement at the American Council on Education, said that doubts about the affordability of higher education helped lay the foundation for political attacks during the Trump administration, which then amplified broader mistrust in colleges and universities.
“If there was an underlying rock solid belief in the value of higher education, we probably wouldn’t be having those conversations,” he said.
According to Gallup polling, more than half of Americans in 2015, the first year the question was asked, said they had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in higher education. That number has steadily declined since then, reaching a low of 36% in 2024, before rising slightly to 42% this year.
Jeffrey Jones, a senior editor at Gallup, said that this year’s increase in confidence is notable but cautioned that one year of data is too short to indicate a lasting shift.
Gallup’s polling shows that confidence in higher education has fallen more sharply among Republicans than Democrats. However, the perceived importance of college hit a new low this year, with only 35% of Americans considering it very important. That decline was shared across party lines.
Starting in 2024, Gallup asked respondents why they lacked confidence in higher education. Americans who expressed doubt most often cited concerns that colleges were pushing political agendas, failing to teach relevant skills or were too expensive. That year, concerns about whether schools were equipping students with the right skills, such as by adequately preparing graduates for employment, tied with cost as the leading issue. This year, worries about political agendas have risen to the top spot.
Pasquerella said this year’s findings did not surprise her. She said Republicans’ negative perceptions of higher education have been reinforced by the Trump administration’s messaging.
“In this post-truth era, when controlling the narrative is often more important than the facts, the rhetoric is bound to shape perceptions,” she said.
While the published cost of higher education has risen sharply, the actual amount students pay has improved in recent years.
The “sticker price” of college, the published cost of attendance before any aid is applied, has risen sharply. At the high end, some elite institutions are approaching or exceeding the six-figure mark. This year, Wellesley College appears to have become the first U.S. college to surpass a $100,000 annual sticker price.
Most students, however, don’t pay the full price thanks to financial aid. According to CollegeBoard data, the average net price students actually pay, adjusted for inflation, has declined over the past decade for both in-state public four-year colleges and private nonprofit four-year institutions.
Still, high sticker prices can be discouraging. Higher education association leaders said that schools could do more to highlight the aid that’s available. Some institutions, including Princeton, MIT and the University of Pennsylvania, have recently expanded their aid offerings. A small number of private colleges have implemented what are known as “tuition resets,” significantly reducing their official sticker prices in recognition that most students don’t pay the full amount.
Jones said he hears refrains of the same concern from respondents: “People are getting four-year degrees, and they’re coming out with all this debt that doesn’t pay off into the kind of job where they could afford to pay off the investment that they made in college.”
Pasquerella also pointed to for-profit colleges, some of which have left students deep in debt while producing few graduates, as contributing to the perception that college is a poor financial investment.
“We conflate what’s happening at those institutions with the rest of higher education when we talk about a lack of affordability,” she said.
Once students graduate, research shows that workers with degrees generally fare better than their peers without one, though outcomes for non-graduates have improved over the years. At the same time, federal student loan debt has ballooned to over $1.6 trillion, with roughly one in six Americans having federal student loans.
Data from Pew indicates that young U.S. workers without a bachelor’s degree have seen their earnings rise and poverty rates decline over the past decade. Outcomes for young college graduates have also improved, keeping the earnings gap between degree holders and non-degree holders intact.
“If you look at outcomes for college graduates, there’s no debate,” Fansmith said. “One of the best things you can do to improve your socioeconomic status in this country is get a college credential, especially a B.A. degree.”
Better outcomes for workers without a college degree may be contributing to the declining perceptions of the value of higher education. According to Pew, only a quarter of Americans say a four-year degree is extremely or very important for landing a well-paying job. About half said that a four-year degree is less important for securing a well-paying job today than it was 20 years ago.
Recent economic data also indicates growing challenges for college graduates entering the workforce, driven in part by the rise of artificial intelligence. Unemployment among recent college graduates increased to about 6% in March, a four-year high. The share of long-term unemployed workers — those who have been out of work for more than six months — who hold college degrees has also steadily risen.
The Trump administration has amplified concerns about the financial value of college and argued that young people should instead seek out opportunities to develop employable skills.
“Apprenticeships, electricians, plumbers,” said Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary, during an appearance on Fox News. “We need more of those in our country, and less LGBTQ graduate majors from Harvard University.”
Association leaders warned that the administration’s policies could worsen affordability challenges for colleges. This includes its effort to freeze billions of dollars in federal funds for schools, as well as an increase in the tax on university endowments, which could reduce funds available for scholarships and other programs that support students.
“Institutions can’t make that all up,” said Barbara Mistick, president of the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities. “Institutions do a lot in scholarship, and they provide a lot of assistance for students, but nothing is really free.”
- Kate Selig